Halfway through 2026, the T&L market is following the outlook from Lincoln International’s fall conversation with Lee A. Clair of Transportation and Logistics Advisors, LLC (TandLA): resilient but shifting imports, growing commodity exports and a slowly improving domestic freight market.

When Lincoln International first spoke with Lee last fall, the transportation and logistics (T&L) market was still working through an unusually long freight downturn, tariff headlines were dominating the trade conversation and many observers expected either a rapid decline in imports or a near-term reshoring surge. Lee’s view was more nuanced: imports were unlikely to disappear, domestic production would take time to rebuild, exports would show strength and would likely begin with commodities the U.S. already produces at scale, and tariff-driven disruption would likely appear more in changing trade lanes, modal mix and import transport flows than in an immediate domestic manufacturing boom. His outlook was that demand tied to imports would remain relatively stable, domestic transport would stabilize or grow slowly and export-related transport demand would improve gradually, led first by low-value, high-weight commodities.

To check in on that outlook, Gaurang Shastri, Managing Director in Lincoln International’s Business Services Group, recently reconnected with Lee A. Clair, Managing Partner of TandLA. Their conversation is condensed below.